Bruno de Finetti (1906-1985) is the founder of the subjective interpretation of probability, together with the British philosopher Frank Plumpton Ramsey. His related notion of "exchangeability" revolutionized the statistical methodology. This book (based on a course held in 1979) explains in a language accessible also to non-mathematicians the fundamental tenets and implications of subjectivism, according to which the probability of any well specified fact F refers to the degree of belief actually held by someone, on the ground of her whole knowledge, on the truth of the assertion that F obtains.
Introductory Lecture.- Decisions and Proper Scoring Rules.- Geometric Representation of Brier's Rule.- Bayes' Theorem.- Physical Probability and Complexity.- Stochastic Independence and Random Sequences.- Superstition and Frequentism.- Exchangeability.- Distributions.- The Concept of Mean.- Induction and Sample Randomization.- Complete Additivity and Zero Probabilities.- The Definitions of Probability.- The Gambler's Fallacy.- "Facts" and "Events".- "Facts" and "Events": An Example.- Prevision, Random Quantities, and Trievents.- Désir André's Argument.- Characteristic Functions.
From the reviews:
"The belated publication of de Finetti's lectures provides a welcome opportunity to celebrate the achievements of one of the remarkable thinkers of the last century and also to look again at his work as a whole." N.H. Bingham, Imperial College London
"The editor made an extraordinary effort to put the lectures as well as the discussions into proper context through a set of notes. These are very useful, and they often describe the future evolution of a subject which is touched on in the main text. A biographical sketch of de Finetti written by M. C. Gallavotti completes the information given in the book. ? I am grateful to the editor ? for making these lectures available in English to a broader audience." (Enrico Scalas, Mathematical Reviews, Issue 2012 f)
